All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Houston Astros
@
Baltimore Orioles
Date
Thu, Apr 30
Time
8:05 PM
Venue
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Spread
Orioles ML
Odds
-132
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Orioles ML
-132 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Baltimore gets the pitching edge, home field, better recent ATS form, and Houston's historically poor road performance this season, but the Astros' offensive advantage and Baltimore's mediocre home ATS record keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Brandon Young is 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA vs Lambert at 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA — a 0.74 ERA gap favoring Baltimore's starter
Houston's team ERA is 5.96 with a 1.64 WHIP vs Baltimore's 4.28 ERA and 1.40 WHIP — a significant pitching staff disparity
Houston is 3-11 on the road this season (.214 SU) and just 4-10 ATS (.286) away from home
Baltimore is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games and won the head-to-head meeting Apr 28 (5-3), with Baltimore as home underdog ATS at 6-4 (.600)