AiAlpha.bet
MLB Matchup

Braves @ Mariners

Wed, May 6 1:40 AMT-Mobile ParkMLB.TV
Final
ATL 3 - 2 SEA
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
ATL +1.5·SEA -1.5
Moneyline
ATL +109·SEA -131
Total
8
Braves
Away
Braves
36-17
19-8 road
L
W
W
W
W
Mariners
Home
Mariners
25-29
14-15 home
L
L
W
W
L

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Braves ML
+113· moderate risk
68%

Atlanta owns a massive team quality gap — .694 win rate vs .472, +2.2 run differential vs +0.1, and an elite 8-2 ATS run last 10 — but Kirby's superior ERA (3.00 vs 1.88 for Elder) and the pitcher-friendly park temper conviction enough to keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.

View full analysis

Starting Pitchers

Bryce Elder
ATL
Bryce Elder
(4-2, 1.97)
1.97
ERA
George Kirby
SEA
George Kirby
(5-4, 3.54)
3.54
ERA

Season Series — ATL 1 - SEA 2

ATL 3-1 SEA
May 6
ATL 3-2 SEA
May 6
ATL 5-4 SEA
May 5

Batting

0.262
#1
AVG
0.223
#29
0.760
#2
OPS
0.686
#24
72
#2
HR
59
#11
281
#2
R
212
#22
275
#1
RBI
207
#22
25
#23
SB
44
#9

Pitching

3.06
#1
ERA
3.57
#6
1.130
#2
WHIP
1.220
#7
474
#6
K
457
#9
178
#14
BB
136
#1
26
#3
QS
23
#4
15
#7
SV
14
#10

Bullpen & Advanced

9.0
#6
K/9
8.7
#10
0.207
#1
OPP AVG
0.249
#23
0.633
#3
OPP OPS
0.697
#14
29
#14
HLD
30
#13

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

34-19
Overall ATS
19-35
20-7
Away/Home ATS
10-19
25-16
As Favorite
18-32
9-3
As Underdog
1-3
0-0-3
Over/Under
0-0-3
4-6
Last 10 ATS
3-7
ATS Win%
0.6%
Avg spread: -0.8
Avg margin: +1.9
ATS Win%
0.4%
Avg spread: -1.3
Avg margin: +0.1

Scoring

5.30
R/G
4.04
3.36
RA/G
3.93
1.9
DIFF
0.1

Injury Report

ATLAJ Smith-ShawverSP
60-Day-IL
ATLHurston WaldrepSP
60-Day-IL
ATLDrake BaldwinC
10-Day-IL
ATLKyle FarmerDH
10-Day-IL
ATLJoe JimenezRP
60-Day-IL
ATLSpencer SchwellenbachSP
60-Day-IL
ATLSean MurphyC
10-Day-IL
ATLDanny YoungRP
60-Day-IL
SEAGabe SpeierRP
15-Day-IL
SEABrendan Donovan3B
10-Day-IL
SEACal RaleighC
10-Day-IL
SEAMiles Mastrobuoni3B
60-Day-IL
SEATeddy McGrawSP
Day-To-Day
SEALogan EvansSP
60-Day-IL
SEACarlos VargasRP
60-Day-IL
SEAWill Wilson3B
10-Day-IL