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MLB Matchup

Diamondbacks @ Rays

Sun, Jun 28 5:40 PMTropicana FieldMLB.TV
Final
ARI 1 - 5 TB
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
ARI +1.5·TB -1.5
Moneyline
ARI +167·TB -204
Total
8
Diamondbacks
Away
Diamondbacks
69-63
31-34 road
L
W
L
W
W
Rays
Home
Rays
78-53
43-23 home
W
W
L
L
L

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rays ML
-194· moderate risk
72%

Drew Rasmussen's 2.62 ERA dwarfs Merrill Kelly's 5.71 ERA — a 3.09-run gap that is the single largest statistical edge in this matchup and strongly favors Tampa Bay.

View full analysis

Starting Pitchers

Merrill Kelly
ARI
Merrill Kelly
(8-12, 5.35)
5.35
ERA
Drew Rasmussen
TB
Drew Rasmussen
(14-5, 2.95)
2.95
ERA

Season Series — ARI 0 - TB 3

ARI 5-1 TB
Jun 28
ARI 4-2 TB
Jun 27
ARI 6-1 TB
Jun 26

Batting

0.245
#13
AVG
0.261
#1
0.719
#15
OPS
0.734
#6
129
#26
HR
135
#23
598
#11
R
587
#14
570
#11
RBI
558
#17
89
#14
SB
128
#4

Pitching

4.19
#20
ERA
3.83
#8
1.290
#14
WHIP
1.160
#2
892
#29
K
1061
#20
386
#4
BB
329
#1
47
#10
QS
40
#20
32
#20
SV
51
#1

Bullpen & Advanced

6.9
#29
K/9
8.2
#20
0.252
#25
OPP AVG
0.233
#8
0.735
#23
OPP OPS
0.691
#8
73
#11
HLD
99
#1

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

71-61
Overall ATS
72-59
34-31
Away/Home ATS
36-30
21-30
As Favorite
50-47
50-31
As Underdog
22-12
0-0-8
Over/Under
0-0-5
5-5
Last 10 ATS
2-8
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: +0.3
ATS Win%
0.6%
Avg spread: -0.7
Avg margin: +0.4

Scoring

4.53
R/G
4.51
4.52
RA/G
4.15
0.0
DIFF
0.3

Injury Report

ARITommy TroyLF
10-Day-IL
ARIMichael SorokaSP
15-Day-IL
ARIKetel Marte2B
10-Day-IL
ARILourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
10-Day-IL
ARICorbin BurnesSP
60-Day-IL
ARIZac GallenSP
60-Day-IL
ARIRyne NelsonSP
60-Day-IL
ARIBlake WalstonSP
60-Day-IL
TBGriffin JaxSP
15-Day-IL
TBCole SulserRP
15-Day-IL
TBEdwin UcetaRP
60-Day-IL
TBJake FraleyRF
60-Day-IL
TBGavin LuxLF
60-Day-IL
TBBen Williamson2B
10-Day-IL
TBJonathan HeasleyRP
60-Day-IL
TBRyan PepiotSP
60-Day-IL