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MLB Matchup

Padres @ Cubs

Wed, Jul 1 6:20 PMWrigley FieldMLB.TV
Final
SD 3 - 23 CHC
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
SD +1.5·CHC -1.5
Moneyline
SD +108·CHC -130
Total
12
Padres
Away
Padres
71-60
31-34 road
W
W
W
L
W
Cubs
Home
Cubs
76-56
38-27 home
W
W
L
L
L

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cubs ML
-126· moderate risk
62%

Cubs hold a meaningful starter ERA advantage (Colin Rea 4.80 vs Walker Buehler 3.81 actually favors Buehler, but Cubs' superior team offense — .743 OPS vs .669, 425 runs vs 330 — combined with a W4 streak and elite home ATS underperformance being a fade signal against a Padres team on L4 — creates a lean toward the home side at -126 juice in a neutral-to-hitter-friendly wind environment)

View full analysis

Starting Pitchers

Walker Buehler
SD
Walker Buehler
(8-6, 4.63)
4.63
ERA
Colin Rea
CHC
Colin Rea
(8-8, 4.55)
4.55
ERA

Season Series — SD 1 - CHC 5

SD 23-3 CHC
Jul 1
SD 9-7 CHC
Jul 1
SD 3-2 CHC
Jun 30
SD 5-4 CHC
Apr 29
SD 8-3 CHC
Apr 29
SD 9-7 CHC
Apr 28

Batting

0.239
#22
AVG
0.250
#7
0.708
#22
OPS
0.762
#1
148
#17
HR
174
#3
564
#21
R
684
#1
544
#20
RBI
645
#2
125
#7
SB
99
#10

Pitching

4.01
#11
ERA
4.12
#16
1.290
#14
WHIP
1.260
#11
1052
#22
K
1007
#26
444
#16
BB
393
#6
29
#27
QS
40
#20
39
#5
SV
29
#23

Bullpen & Advanced

8.2
#20
K/9
7.7
#26
0.242
#16
OPP AVG
0.244
#17
0.711
#13
OPP OPS
0.728
#21
81
#8
HLD
49
#30

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

75-56
Overall ATS
65-67
37-28
Away/Home ATS
28-37
26-31
As Favorite
41-57
49-25
As Underdog
24-10
0-0-4
Over/Under
0-0-7
8-2
Last 10 ATS
5-5
ATS Win%
0.6%
Avg spread: +0.2
Avg margin: +0.1
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: -0.7
Avg margin: +0.9

Scoring

4.31
R/G
5.23
4.18
RA/G
4.31
0.1
DIFF
0.9

Injury Report

SDJoe MusgroveSP
60-Day-IL
SDNick PivettaSP
60-Day-IL
SDLucas GiolitoSP
60-Day-IL
SDCasey MizeSP
Day-To-Day
SDJason AdamRP
60-Day-IL
SDMiguel AndujarDH
10-Day-IL
SDSamad TaylorLF
10-Day-IL
SDRamon LaureanoLF
60-Day-IL
CHCJustin SteeleSP
60-Day-IL
CHCPhil MatonRP
60-Day-IL
CHCGavin HollowellRP
15-Day-IL
CHCBen BrownRP
60-Day-IL
CHCRiley MartinRP
60-Day-IL
CHCHunter HarveyRP
60-Day-IL
CHCMatt ShawRF
10-Day-IL
CHCDansby SwansonSS
10-Day-IL