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MLB Matchup

Padres @ Cubs

Wed, Jul 1 6:20 PMWrigley FieldMLB.TV
Final
SD 3 - 23 CHC
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
SD +1.5·CHC -1.5
Moneyline
SD +108·CHC -130
Total
12
Padres
Away
Padres
46-47
21-24 road
L
W
W
L
W
Cubs
Home
Cubs
52-41
27-19 home
L
W
W
W
L

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cubs ML
-126· moderate risk
62%

Cubs hold a meaningful starter ERA advantage (Colin Rea 4.80 vs Walker Buehler 3.81 actually favors Buehler, but Cubs' superior team offense — .743 OPS vs .669, 425 runs vs 330 — combined with a W4 streak and elite home ATS underperformance being a fade signal against a Padres team on L4 — creates a lean toward the home side at -126 juice in a neutral-to-hitter-friendly wind environment)

View full analysis

Starting Pitchers

Walker Buehler
SD
Walker Buehler
(5-5, 5.07)
5.07
ERA
Colin Rea
CHC
Colin Rea
(7-5, 4.75)
4.75
ERA

Season Series — SD 1 - CHC 5

SD 23-3 CHC
Jul 1
SD 9-7 CHC
Jul 1
SD 3-2 CHC
Jun 30
SD 5-4 CHC
Apr 29
SD 8-3 CHC
Apr 29
SD 9-7 CHC
Apr 28

Batting

0.225
#30
AVG
0.244
#13
0.671
#30
OPS
0.749
#5
97
#22
HR
118
#9
363
#30
R
471
#5
355
#29
RBI
439
#5
96
#3
SB
67
#13

Pitching

4.20
#13
ERA
4.35
#20
1.340
#20
WHIP
1.270
#12
759
#20
K
726
#25
332
#20
BB
291
#10
17
#29
QS
24
#23
27
#8
SV
18
#25

Bullpen & Advanced

8.3
#20
K/9
7.9
#24
0.247
#19
OPP AVG
0.244
#18
0.723
#18
OPP OPS
0.737
#22
57
#8
HLD
33
#29

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

50-43
Overall ATS
40-53
24-21
Away/Home ATS
17-29
16-20
As Favorite
25-44
34-23
As Underdog
15-9
0-0-2
Over/Under
0-0-5
4-6
Last 10 ATS
7-3
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: +0.3
Avg margin: -0.5
ATS Win%
0.4%
Avg spread: -0.7
Avg margin: +0.5

Scoring

3.90
R/G
5.06
4.37
RA/G
4.53
-0.5
DIFF
0.6

Injury Report

SDRandy VasquezSP
15-Day-IL
SDFreddy FerminC
10-Day-IL
SDSamad TaylorLF
10-Day-IL
SDJason AdamRP
15-Day-IL
SDMatt WaldronRP
15-Day-IL
SDJeremiah EstradaRP
15-Day-IL
SDLucas GiolitoSP
15-Day-IL
SDDavid MorganRP
15-Day-IL
CHCJustin SteeleSP
60-Day-IL
CHCPhil MatonRP
15-Day-IL
CHCJameson TaillonSP
15-Day-IL
CHCEdward CabreraSP
15-Day-IL
CHCMatt ShawRF
10-Day-IL
CHCEthan RobertsRP
15-Day-IL
CHCDaniel PalenciaRP
15-Day-IL
CHCHoby MilnerRP
15-Day-IL