AiAlpha.bet
MLB Matchup

Pirates @ Diamondbacks

Thu, May 7 7:40 PMChase FieldMLB.TV
Final
PIT 4 - 2 ARI
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
PIT +1.5·ARI -1.5
Moneyline
PIT -103·ARI -117
Total
8.5
Pirates
Away
Pirates
82-80
38-43 road
Diamondbacks
Home
Diamondbacks
86-76
45-36 home

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-105· moderate risk
72%

Mitch Keller (2.85 ERA, 3-1) holds a massive 1.60-run ERA advantage over Zac Gallen (4.45 ERA, 1-2), meeting the near-automatic lean threshold for the better starter's team.

View full analysis

Starting Pitchers

Mitch Keller
PIT
Mitch Keller
(6-8, 5.29)
5.29
ERA
Zac Gallen
ARI
Zac Gallen
(3-9, 6.07)
6.07
ERA

Batting

0.253
#8
AVG
0.246
#12
0.734
#8
OPS
0.720
#12
186
#8
HR
166
#18
767
#4
R
739
#6
733
#4
RBI
706
#7
132
#6
SB
103
#11

Pitching

4.15
#14
ERA
4.18
#15
1.300
#16
WHIP
1.280
#12
1496
#4
K
1140
#21
582
#24
BB
483
#12
47
#18
QS
55
#7
41
#12
SV
38
#14

Bullpen & Advanced

9.3
#8
K/9
7.1
#29
0.237
#12
OPP AVG
0.249
#19
0.699
#12
OPP OPS
0.727
#20
79
#19
HLD
84
#12

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

80-82
Overall ATS
85-77
40-41
Away/Home ATS
44-37
36-50
As Favorite
29-42
44-32
As Underdog
56-35
0-0-7
Over/Under
0-0-8
6-4
Last 10 ATS
6-4
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: -0.1
Avg margin: +0.2
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: +0.2
Avg margin: +0.1

Scoring

4.73
R/G
4.56
4.56
RA/G
4.51
0.1
DIFF
0.1

Injury Report

PITOneil CruzCF
Day-To-Day
PITMitch KellerSP
60-Day-IL
PITBraxton AshcraftSP
15-Day-IL
PITEsmerlyn ValdezRF
10-Day-IL
PITIsaac MattsonRP
15-Day-IL
PITEndy RodriguezC
60-Day-IL
ARICorbin BurnesSP
15-Day-IL
ARITyler Locklear1B
60-Day-IL
ARIRyan ThompsonRP
60-Day-IL
ARIA.J. PukRP
60-Day-IL
ARIAndrew SaalfrankRP
60-Day-IL
ARICristian MenaRP
60-Day-IL