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MLB Matchup

Pirates @ Diamondbacks

Thu, May 7 7:40 PMChase FieldMLB.TV
Final
PIT 4 - 2 ARI
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
PIT -1.5·ARI +1.5
Moneyline
PIT -103·ARI -117
Total
8.5
Pirates
Away
Pirates
47-47
23-23 road
L
L
W
W
W
Diamondbacks
Home
Diamondbacks
46-47
27-20 home
W
L
L
W
L

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-105· moderate risk
72%

Mitch Keller (2.85 ERA, 3-1) holds a massive 1.60-run ERA advantage over Zac Gallen (4.45 ERA, 1-2), meeting the near-automatic lean threshold for the better starter's team.

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Starting Pitchers

Mitch Keller
PIT
Mitch Keller
(6-7, 5.14)
5.14
ERA
Zac Gallen
ARI
Zac Gallen
(3-9, 6.34)
6.34
ERA

Season Series — PIT 2 - ARI 1

PIT 4-2 ARI
May 7
PIT 1-0 ARI
May 7
PIT 9-0 ARI
May 6

Batting

0.262
#2
AVG
0.237
#22
0.763
#2
OPS
0.690
#26
120
#7
HR
84
#29
492
#3
R
393
#22
472
#2
RBI
377
#20
88
#5
SB
60
#16

Pitching

4.32
#19
ERA
4.26
#17
1.310
#16
WHIP
1.280
#13
858
#4
K
634
#30
340
#23
BB
267
#5
32
#12
QS
35
#8
17
#28
SV
24
#15

Bullpen & Advanced

9.2
#3
K/9
7.0
#30
0.239
#14
OPP AVG
0.251
#23
0.713
#13
OPP OPS
0.737
#22
43
#23
HLD
50
#16

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

47-47
Overall ATS
50-43
24-22
Away/Home ATS
26-21
25-27
As Favorite
17-19
22-20
As Underdog
33-24
0-0-3
Over/Under
0-0-7
5-5
Last 10 ATS
5-5
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: -0.2
Avg margin: +0.4
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: +0.3
Avg margin: -0.3

Scoring

5.23
R/G
4.23
4.88
RA/G
4.53
0.3
DIFF
-0.3

Injury Report

PITEndy RodriguezC
10-Day-IL
PITSpencer Horwitz1B
10-Day-IL
PITOneil CruzCF
10-Day-IL
PITKonnor GriffinSS
10-Day-IL
PITWilber DotelRP
15-Day-IL
PITEvan SiskRP
15-Day-IL
PITChris DevenskiRP
60-Day-IL
ARICorbin BurnesSP
60-Day-IL
ARIJordan LawlarLF
10-Day-IL
ARIMichael SorokaSP
15-Day-IL
ARIRyne NelsonSP
60-Day-IL
ARIA.J. PukRP
60-Day-IL
ARICristian MenaRP
60-Day-IL
ARIBlake WalstonSP
60-Day-IL
ARIJustin MartinezRP
60-Day-IL