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MLB Matchup

Pirates @ Diamondbacks

Thu, May 7 7:40 PMChase FieldMLB.TV
Final
PIT 4 - 2 ARI
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
PIT -1.5·ARI +1.5
Moneyline
PIT -103·ARI -117
Total
8.5
Pirates
Away
Pirates
27-26
14-13 road
W
L
L
W
W
Diamondbacks
Home
Diamondbacks
28-24
18-10 home
W
W
L
W
W

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-105· moderate risk
72%

Mitch Keller (2.85 ERA, 3-1) holds a massive 1.60-run ERA advantage over Zac Gallen (4.45 ERA, 1-2), meeting the near-automatic lean threshold for the better starter's team.

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Starting Pitchers

Mitch Keller
PIT
Mitch Keller
(5-2, 3.64)
3.64
ERA
Zac Gallen
ARI
Zac Gallen
(3-4, 4.80)
4.80
ERA

Season Series — PIT 2 - ARI 1

PIT 4-2 ARI
May 7
PIT 1-0 ARI
May 7
PIT 9-0 ARI
May 6

Batting

0.251
#4
AVG
0.246
#6
0.717
#10
OPS
0.710
#13
52
#17
HR
45
#23
252
#4
R
230
#11
241
#4
RBI
221
#12
46
#8
SB
35
#17

Pitching

3.89
#13
ERA
4.14
#16
1.230
#9
WHIP
1.260
#14
464
#7
K
368
#30
184
#16
BB
153
#5
19
#9
QS
18
#13
8
#28
SV
14
#10

Bullpen & Advanced

8.9
#8
K/9
7.4
#29
0.227
#8
OPP AVG
0.241
#18
0.676
#8
OPP OPS
0.706
#18
29
#14
HLD
36
#8

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

27-26
Overall ATS
31-21
14-13
Away/Home ATS
17-11
15-17
As Favorite
10-8
12-9
As Underdog
21-13
0-0-2
Over/Under
0-0-4
4-6
Last 10 ATS
6-4
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: -0.3
Avg margin: +0.4
ATS Win%
0.6%
Avg spread: +0.5
Avg margin: +0.1

Scoring

4.83
R/G
4.60
4.42
RA/G
4.46
0.4
DIFF
0.1

Injury Report

PITJared JonesSP
60-Day-IL
PITChris DevenskiRP
15-Day-IL
PITRyan O'HearnRF
10-Day-IL
PITJoey BartC
10-Day-IL
PITAnthony SolometoSP
Day-To-Day
PITOddanier MosquedaRP
Day-To-Day
PITMike ClevingerRP
Day-To-Day
PITSean SullivanSP
Day-To-Day
ARILourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
10-Day-IL
ARIDerek LawRP
Day-To-Day
ARISpencer GiestingSP
Day-To-Day
ARIA.J. PukRP
60-Day-IL
ARICorbin BurnesSP
60-Day-IL
ARIJames McCannC
10-Day-IL
ARIJordan LawlarLF
60-Day-IL
ARIPavin Smith1B
60-Day-IL