AiAlpha.bet
MLB Matchup

Rays @ Red Sox

Thu, May 7 11:00 PMFenway ParkESPN
Final
TB 8 - 4 BOS
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
TB -1.5·BOS +1.5
Moneyline
TB +100·BOS -121
Total
8.5
Rays
Away
Rays
34-16
15-11 road
L
W
W
W
W
Red Sox
Home
Red Sox
22-30
8-17 home
L
L
L
W
W

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rays ML
-105· moderate risk
68%

Tampa Bay owns a dominant 23-13 ATS record (.639) and an 8-2 ATS run last 10, while Boston is a historically bad 4-12 ATS at home (.250) — but Jake Bennett's 1.80 ERA vs Griffin Jax's 5.14 ERA creates a meaningful pitching counterweight that caps this to a LEAN.

View full analysis

Starting Pitchers

Griffin Jax
TB
Griffin Jax
(1-2, 3.54)
3.54
ERA
Jake Bennett
BOS
Jake Bennett
(1-1, 4.35)
4.35
ERA

Season Series — TB 2 - BOS 1

TB 4-1 BOS
May 10
TB 2-0 BOS
May 8
TB 8-4 BOS
May 7

Batting

0.261
#2
AVG
0.239
#15
0.724
#6
OPS
0.676
#27
41
#28
HR
36
#29
236
#9
R
189
#29
222
#11
RBI
181
#29
53
#4
SB
37
#15

Pitching

3.54
#5
ERA
3.71
#9
1.190
#4
WHIP
1.240
#10
381
#28
K
421
#18
152
#4
BB
157
#6
15
#20
QS
19
#9
23
#1
SV
12
#21

Bullpen & Advanced

7.7
#27
K/9
8.4
#16
0.227
#8
OPP AVG
0.237
#13
0.667
#5
OPP OPS
0.694
#13
42
#2
HLD
27
#19

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

32-18
Overall ATS
20-32
14-12
Away/Home ATS
7-18
19-10
As Favorite
13-23
13-8
As Underdog
7-9
0-0-3
Over/Under
0-0-1
6-4
Last 10 ATS
4-6
ATS Win%
0.6%
Avg spread: -0.2
Avg margin: +0.8
ATS Win%
0.4%
Avg spread: -0.6
Avg margin: -0.3

Scoring

4.72
R/G
3.73
3.92
RA/G
4.04
0.8
DIFF
-0.3

Injury Report

TBJonny DeLucaRF
10-Day-IL
TBBen Williamson2B
10-Day-IL
TBJake FraleyRF
10-Day-IL
TBCole SulserRP
15-Day-IL
TBGavin LuxLF
10-Day-IL
TBAustin VernonRP
Day-To-Day
TBSteven WilsonRP
60-Day-IL
TBLogan DriscollC
Day-To-Day
BOSRomy Gonzalez1B
60-Day-IL
BOSGarrett CrochetSP
15-Day-IL
BOSTrevor StorySS
10-Day-IL
BOSRoman AnthonyLF
10-Day-IL
BOSKutter CrawfordSP
60-Day-IL
BOSTanner HouckSP
60-Day-IL
BOSHobie HarrisRP
Day-To-Day
BOSTriston Casas1B
60-Day-IL