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MLB Matchup

Reds @ Cubs

Mon, May 4 11:10 PMWrigley FieldMLB.TV
Final
CIN 4 - 5 CHC
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
CIN +1.5·CHC -1.5
Moneyline
CIN +183·CHC -225
Total
11.5
Reds
Away
Reds
27-25
13-13 road
W
L
W
W
L
Cubs
Home
Cubs
29-24
18-11 home
L
L
L
L
L

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cubs ML
-219· moderate risk
68%

Chicago holds a +1.9 run differential edge over Cincinnati, pairs a 3-0/3.06 ERA starter against an unrecorded Chase Petty, and owns a dominant .783 OPS offense vs Cincinnati's .688 — but the -219 price demands 69% implied probability, leaving minimal value margin.

View full analysis

Starting Pitchers

Chase Petty
CIN
Chase Petty
(0-0, 5.91)
5.91
ERA
Edward Cabrera
CHC
Edward Cabrera
(3-2, 4.00)
4.00
ERA

Season Series — CIN 0 - CHC 4

CIN 8-3 CHC
May 7
CIN 7-6 CHC
May 6
CIN 3-2 CHC
May 5
CIN 5-4 CHC
May 4

Batting

0.227
#26
AVG
0.238
#16
0.703
#15
OPS
0.725
#5
66
#5
HR
59
#11
229
#13
R
248
#6
216
#16
RBI
229
#7
42
#11
SB
34
#18

Pitching

4.78
#25
ERA
4.05
#15
1.470
#29
WHIP
1.230
#9
402
#25
K
417
#21
244
#28
BB
160
#8
16
#18
QS
17
#16
13
#14
SV
10
#25

Bullpen & Advanced

7.8
#25
K/9
8.1
#21
0.249
#23
OPP AVG
0.235
#12
0.775
#27
OPP OPS
0.700
#16
39
#4
HLD
11
#30

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

30-22
Overall ATS
21-32
16-10
Away/Home ATS
12-17
9-8
As Favorite
13-26
21-14
As Underdog
8-6
0-0-1
Over/Under
0-0-5
5-5
Last 10 ATS
2-8
ATS Win%
0.6%
Avg spread: +0.5
Avg margin: -0.7
ATS Win%
0.4%
Avg spread: -0.7
Avg margin: +0.4

Scoring

4.40
R/G
4.77
5.06
RA/G
4.40
-0.7
DIFF
0.4

Injury Report

CINKe'Bryan Hayes3B
10-Day-IL
CINRhett LowderSP
15-Day-IL
CINEmilio PaganRP
15-Day-IL
CINJose TrevinoC
10-Day-IL
CINHunter GreeneSP
60-Day-IL
CINConnor BurnsC
Day-To-Day
CINJosh StaumontRP
Day-To-Day
CINBrandon WilliamsonSP
60-Day-IL
CHCEdward CabreraSP
15-Day-IL
CHCMatt ShawRF
10-Day-IL
CHCHunter HarveyRP
60-Day-IL
CHCMatthew BoydSP
15-Day-IL
CHCBrandon BirdsellRP
Day-To-Day
CHCJeff BrighamRP
Day-To-Day
CHCJustin SteeleSP
60-Day-IL
CHCPorter HodgeRP
60-Day-IL