AiAlpha.bet
MLB Matchup

Reds @ Cubs

Wed, May 6 11:40 PMWrigley FieldMLB.TV
Final
CIN 6 - 7 CHC
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
CIN +1.5·CHC -1.5
Moneyline
CIN +140·CHC -169
Total
8
Reds
Away
Reds
62-70
30-34 road
L
L
W
L
L
Cubs
Home
Cubs
76-56
38-27 home
W
W
L
L
L

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cubs ML
-175· moderate risk
72%

Chicago holds a commanding team quality advantage with a +2.0 run differential edge, a .667 win percentage vs Cincinnati's .556, a superior team ERA (3.83 vs 4.45), and a dominant WHIP gap (1.17 vs 1.50) — but the -175 price compresses the value to a lean rather than a full pick.

View full analysis

Starting Pitchers

Brady Singer
CIN
Brady Singer
(5-11, 4.72)
4.72
ERA
Colin Rea
CHC
Colin Rea
(8-8, 4.55)
4.55
ERA

Season Series — CIN 1 - CHC 6

CIN 8-4 CHC
Jul 12
CIN 5-3 CHC
Jul 11
CIN 4-0 CHC
Jul 10
CIN 8-3 CHC
May 7
CIN 7-6 CHC
May 6
CIN 3-2 CHC
May 5
CIN 5-4 CHC
May 4

Batting

0.227
#30
AVG
0.250
#7
0.699
#24
OPS
0.762
#1
169
#6
HR
174
#3
537
#24
R
684
#1
513
#25
RBI
645
#2
89
#14
SB
99
#10

Pitching

4.52
#24
ERA
4.12
#16
1.410
#28
WHIP
1.260
#11
1054
#21
K
1007
#26
543
#30
BB
393
#6
44
#16
QS
40
#20
33
#16
SV
29
#23

Bullpen & Advanced

8.1
#22
K/9
7.7
#26
0.248
#20
OPP AVG
0.244
#17
0.747
#26
OPP OPS
0.728
#21
73
#11
HLD
49
#30

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

67-65
Overall ATS
65-67
35-29
Away/Home ATS
28-37
19-23
As Favorite
41-57
48-42
As Underdog
24-10
0-0-2
Over/Under
0-0-7
4-6
Last 10 ATS
5-5
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: +0.5
Avg margin: -0.7
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: -0.7
Avg margin: +0.9

Scoring

4.07
R/G
5.23
4.82
RA/G
4.31
-0.7
DIFF
0.9

Injury Report

CINMichael Toglia1B
10-Day-IL
CINBrandon WilliamsonSP
60-Day-IL
CINSpencer Steer1B
10-Day-IL
CINHunter GreeneSP
60-Day-IL
CINBlake DunnCF
60-Day-IL
CINGraham AshcraftRP
60-Day-IL
CHCJustin SteeleSP
60-Day-IL
CHCPhil MatonRP
60-Day-IL
CHCGavin HollowellRP
15-Day-IL
CHCBen BrownRP
60-Day-IL
CHCRiley MartinRP
60-Day-IL
CHCHunter HarveyRP
60-Day-IL
CHCMatt ShawRF
10-Day-IL
CHCDansby SwansonSS
10-Day-IL