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MLB Matchup

Royals @ Mariners

Sun, May 3 8:10 PMT-Mobile ParkMLB.TV
Final
KC 4 - 1 SEA
Box Score →

Odds

DraftKings
Run Line
KC -1.5·SEA +1.5
Moneyline
KC -105·SEA -115
Total
7.5
Royals
Away
Royals
22-31
7-17 road
W
W
L
L
L
Mariners
Home
Mariners
25-29
14-15 home
L
L
W
W
L

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Royals ML
+104· moderate risk
62%

Kris Bubic (2-1, 3.74 ERA) holds a massive 2.61-run ERA advantage over Luis Castillo (0-2, 6.35 ERA), the single largest statistical edge in this matchup.

View full analysis

Starting Pitchers

Kris Bubic
KC
Kris Bubic
(3-2, 4.11)
4.11
ERA
Luis Castillo
SEA
Luis Castillo
(1-5, 6.41)
6.41
ERA

Season Series — KC 5 - SEA 1

KC 8-6 SEA
May 24
KC 5-0 SEA
May 23
KC 2-0 SEA
May 22
KC 4-1 SEA
May 3
KC 3-2 SEA
May 3
KC 7-6 SEA
May 2

Batting

0.236
#19
AVG
0.223
#29
0.688
#22
OPS
0.686
#24
48
#20
HR
59
#11
199
#28
R
212
#22
192
#26
RBI
207
#22
36
#16
SB
44
#9

Pitching

4.16
#18
ERA
3.57
#6
1.360
#22
WHIP
1.220
#7
429
#15
K
457
#9
213
#27
BB
136
#1
27
#2
QS
23
#4
14
#10
SV
14
#10

Bullpen & Advanced

8.4
#16
K/9
8.7
#10
0.241
#18
OPP AVG
0.249
#23
0.732
#23
OPP OPS
0.697
#14
20
#25
HLD
30
#13

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

22-31
Overall ATS
19-35
8-16
Away/Home ATS
10-19
9-19
As Favorite
18-32
13-12
As Underdog
1-3
0-0-1
Over/Under
0-0-3
4-6
Last 10 ATS
3-7
ATS Win%
0.4%
Avg spread: -0.1
Avg margin: -0.5
ATS Win%
0.4%
Avg spread: -1.3
Avg margin: +0.1

Scoring

3.91
R/G
4.04
4.38
RA/G
3.93
-0.5
DIFF
0.1

Injury Report

KCCole RagansSP
15-Day-IL
KCMatt StrahmRP
15-Day-IL
KCJames McArthurRP
60-Day-IL
KCKris BubicSP
15-Day-IL
KCAnthony SimonelliSP
Day-To-Day
KCJavier Vaz2B
Day-To-Day
KCTyson GuerreroRP
Day-To-Day
KCJonathan India2B
10-Day-IL
SEAGabe SpeierRP
15-Day-IL
SEABrendan Donovan3B
10-Day-IL
SEACal RaleighC
10-Day-IL
SEAMiles Mastrobuoni3B
60-Day-IL
SEATeddy McGrawSP
Day-To-Day
SEALogan EvansSP
60-Day-IL
SEACarlos VargasRP
60-Day-IL
SEAWill Wilson3B
10-Day-IL