AiAlpha.bet
NHL Matchup

Canadiens @ Lightning

Wed, Apr 29 11:00 PMBenchmark International ArenaESPN2

Odds

DraftKings
Puck Line
MTL +1.5·TB -1.5
Moneyline
MTL +142·TB -170
Total
5.5

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Lightning ML
-170· high risk
72%

Andrei Vasilevskiy holds a meaningful crease advantage over Jakub Dobes (.912 vs .901 SV%, 2.31 vs 2.78 GAA), and Tampa Bay is the home favorite in a dead-even series where home ice has flipped every result.

View full analysis
Canadiens
Away
Canadiens
48-24-10
24-9-8 road
106 pts
L
W
L
W
Lightning
Home
Lightning
50-26-6
26-14-1 home
106 pts
W
L
W
L

Season Series — MTL 2 - TB 2

MTL 3-2 TB
Apr 26
MTL 3-2 TB
Apr 24
MTL 3-2 TB
Apr 21
MTL 4-3 TB
Apr 19

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

48-34
Overall ATS
43-39
24-17
Away/Home ATS
24-17
4-10
As Favorite
33-29
44-24
As Underdog
10-10
0-0
Over/Under
0-0
7-3
Last 10 ATS
5-5
ATS Win%
0.6%
Avg spread: +1.0
Avg margin: -0.2
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: -0.8
Avg margin: +0.9

Scoring

3.45
#26
GF/G
3.54
#26
3.12
#7
GA/G
2.82
#7
0.4
DIFF
0.7

Goaltending

0.883
#27
SV%
0.882
#28
2.75
#8
GAA
2.75
#8
94
#2
SA
93
#1

Offense

11
#26
G
11
#26
21
#24
A
19
#27
93
SOG
94
5
#19
PP G
4
#20

Discipline

73
#12
PIM
71
#11

Injuries

MTLNoah DobsonD
Out
TBCharle-Edouard D'AstousD
Day-To-Day
TBPontus HolmbergRW
Out