AiAlpha.bet
NHL Matchup

Lightning @ Canadiens

Thu, Apr 9 11:00 PMBell CentreESPN+

Odds

Draft Kings
Puck Line
TB -1.5·MTL +1.5
Moneyline
TB -122·MTL +102
Total
6.5

AI Analysis

LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Lightning ML
-115· moderate risk
62%

Vasilevskiy's crease quality advantage is significant — Tampa's team SV% of 90.2% (#8) vs Montreal's 89.4% (#19) and GAA of 2.81 vs 3.08 gives TB a measurable goaltending edge against a rookie in Dobes.

View full analysis
Lightning
Away
Lightning
48-24-6
23-11-5 road
102 pts
L
L
W
W
L
Canadiens
Home
Canadiens
46-22-10
23-14-2 home
102 pts
W
L
W
W
W

Season Series — TB 2 - MTL 1

TB 4-1 MTL
Mar 31
TB 5-4 MTL
Dec 28
TB 6-1 MTL
Dec 10

Prediction Market

via Polymarket

ATS Records

38-40
Overall ATS
42-35
22-17
Away/Home ATS
16-23
27-39
As Favorite
10-32
11-1
As Underdog
32-3
0-0
Over/Under
0-0
4-6
Last 10 ATS
5-5
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: -1.0
Avg margin: +0.8
ATS Win%
0.5%
Avg spread: -0.1
Avg margin: +0.4

Scoring

3.60
#2
GF/G
3.50
#7
2.83
#3
GA/G
3.14
#20
0.8
DIFF
0.4

Goaltending

0.902
#8
SV%
0.894
#19
2.81
#3
GAA
3.08
#22
2096
#8
SA
2173
#17

Offense

277
#2
G
269
#7
486
#2
A
462
#4
2210
SOG
2062
51
#13
PP G
54
#8

Discipline

1116
#32
PIM
772
#26

Injuries

TBPontus HolmbergRW
Out
TBAnthony CirelliC
Day-To-Day
TBBrandon HagelLW
Day-To-Day
MTLJoe VelenoC
Day-To-Day
MTLAlexandre CarrierD
Out