All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Boston Red Sox
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Wed, May 6
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-112
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
-112 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Detroit's elite home/underdog ATS splits and Boston's poor road ATS record provide a directional lean toward the Tigers ML, but Flaherty's ugly ERA and Boston's current offensive form keep this firmly in LEAN territory.
Key Factors
Detroit is 12-5 at home SU and 12-5 ATS at home (.706), the strongest home split in this dataset — Boston is 8-12 ATS on the road (.400)
Detroit ATS as home underdog is 8-3 (.727) vs Boston ATS as road favorite at 8-18 (.308) — a massive 41-point gap in cover rate
Detroit team ERA (3.93) and Opp OPS allowed (.703) are both better than Boston's ERA (4.11) and Opp OPS allowed (.726), giving Detroit a slight overall pitching edge
Sonny Gray is listed on the 15-DAY IL with manager comments only pointing 'toward' a return — if he is scratched, Boston's pitching advantage evaporates entirely