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NBA · SpreadWon
San Antonio Spurs
@
Minnesota Timberwolves
Date
Sat, May 9
Time
1:30 AM
Venue
Target Center
Spread
Spurs -4.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
PICK
Spurs -4.5
-110 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
San Antonio Spurs 115, Minnesota Timberwolves 108
+90.91u
The Edge
San Antonio's elite shooting, dominant Net Rating edge, and Minnesota's compounding injury situation give the Spurs enough concrete advantages to cover a 4.5-point spread on the road.
Key Factors
Net Rating gap: Spurs +8.1 vs Wolves +3.2 — a +4.9 differential, the strongest team-quality predictor available
Shooting superiority: Spurs rank #1 in 3P% (39.5%) and #4 in FG% (48.2%) vs Wolves #23 (33.8%) and #18 (45.8%)
Injury pressure: Edwards (DAY-TO-DAY) and Dosunmu (DAY-TO-DAY) join confirmed DiVincenzo (OUT) — methodology flags day-to-day on game day usually means out, potentially costing Minnesota 2 rotation pieces
Minnesota is only 17-24 (.415) ATS at home this season, a clear fade signal per the home/road splits framework