All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Houston Astros
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Fri, May 8
Time
10:10 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
-143
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
-143 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
A LEAN on the Reds ML is supported by home-field advantage, a clear pitching edge on paper with Burrows at 5.97 ERA, and superior ATS metrics, but Cincinnati's 7-game skid and offensive underperformance keep this well short of a PICK.
Key Factors
Reds home ATS record is 10-8 (.556) vs Astros road ATS of 7-12 (.368) — a meaningful split favoring Cincinnati at home
Houston starter Mike Burrows is 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA, a clear liability on the mound regardless of opponent
Reds overall ATS win rate is .605 vs Astros .395 — a +21% gap flagged as a key signal
Great American Ball Park run factor of 1.14 and HR factor of 1.22 with 8 mph wind out to RF favors the home team's 52 HR output and inflates scoring against a Houston staff with a 5.82 team ERA and 1.63 WHIP