All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Kansas City Royals
Date
Fri, May 8
Time
11:40 PM
Venue
Kauffman Stadium
Spread
Royals ML
Odds
-149
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Royals ML
-149 · 1 Unit
58%
The Edge
A lean toward Kansas City at home given Detroit's poor road record and Bubic's slight ERA edge, but the Tigers' superior team ERA and strong underdog record cap this at a lean rather than a pick.
Key Factors
KC home record is 11-9 (.550) vs Detroit's road record of 6-14 (.300) — a 25-point gap in win percentage
Kris Bubic ERA 3.32 vs Keider Montero ERA 3.48 — slight pitching edge to the home starter
Detroit road ATS record is 7-13 (.350), well below their overall ATS of 19-19 (.500), indicating they consistently underperform on the road
Kauffman Stadium HR factor of 0.89 suppresses Detroit's power (36 HR, lower of the two teams), slightly neutralizing their offensive edge