All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
San Diego Padres
Date
Sat, May 9
Time
1:45 AM
Venue
Petco Park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
+129
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
+129 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cardinals ML is a LEAN — the ATS momentum and road form are real statistical edges, but the price (+129), park factors, and San Diego's superior team pitching metrics prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Cardinals 8-2 ATS last 10 games vs. Padres 4-6 ATS last 10 — a 40-point gap in recent ATS performance
Cardinals road ATS record 11-6 (.647) is elite; Padres home ATS record 12-8 (.600) is solid but inferior
Cardinals team OPS .722 vs. Padres .722 opponent OPS — offense matches up well; Padres team OPS .684 is notably weaker
Cardinals starter McGreevy at 2.52 ERA vs. Padres' Canning at 1.80 ERA (0 IP sample — unreliable); Cardinals overall ATS win rate 23-14 (.622) vs. Padres 21-16 (.568)