All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Los Angeles Angels
@
Toronto Blue Jays
Date
Sat, May 9
Time
7:07 PM
Venue
Rogers Centre
Spread
Blue Jays ML
Odds
-186
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Blue Jays ML
-186 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Toronto's starting pitching edge and home-field advantage provide a directional lean, but the Blue Jays' poor ATS record as home favorites and the Angels' strong underdog cover rate cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Yesavage ERA of 0.96 vs Kochanowicz ERA of 3.05 — a 2.09-run gap favoring the Toronto starter, approaching the 1.5+ threshold for a significant edge
Toronto home record is 11-8 SU vs Angels road record of 7-14 SU — Blue Jays are meaningfully better at home
Toronto team ERA of 4.11 and WHIP of 1.29 both outperform Angels team ERA of 4.42 and WHIP of 1.42, indicating a stronger overall pitching staff
Blue Jays won yesterday's game 2-0 in this same series and carry a W1 streak; Angels are on L1 and were shut out in their last outing