All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Athletics
@
Baltimore Orioles
Date
Sat, May 9
Time
8:05 PM
Venue
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Spread
Athletics ML
Odds
+109
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Athletics ML
+109 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
The pitching matchup and elite road ATS record give Oakland a genuine lean, but picking an underdog at +109 requires 4+ concrete edges and the absence of deeper Baz metrics keeps this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Starter ERA delta: Civale 2.95 vs Baz 4.99 — a 2.04-run gap that clears the 1.5+ ERA threshold for a meaningful lean toward the Athletics
Athletics road ATS record is elite at 16-6 (.727) vs Baltimore's poor home ATS mark of 8-11 (.421) — a 30-point gap in cover rate
Athletics overall ATS win rate is .605 vs Baltimore's .436 — a +17% edge cited in the data
Athletics carry a W2 streak and positive momentum; Baltimore is on an L2 skid and sits at 17-22 (.436) overall
Baltimore's injury report is significantly more depleted: two SPs on 15-day IL (Povich, Kremer), Jackson Holliday (2B) on 10-day IL, and 2+ additional injuries — bullpen depth is a real concern