All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Date
Sat, May 9
Time
10:05 PM
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Spread
Rockies ML
Odds
+159
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rockies ML
+159 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
A LEAN on Colorado ML is justified by the extreme ATS split disparity and near-identical starter ERAs, but the depleted bullpen and underdog price demand caution — this does not clear the four-edge threshold for a PICK.
Key Factors
Colorado is 12-8 ATS on the road (.600) vs Philadelphia's 5-17 ATS at home (.227) — a 37-point gap in cover rate that is the single clearest signal in this dataset
Colorado's overall ATS record is 22-17 (.564) vs Philadelphia's 9-30 (.231) — a +33% edge in ATS win rate across the full season
Pitcher ERA is essentially a wash: Freeland 5.04 vs Nola 5.06 — no meaningful starting pitching edge for the -194 favorite
Colorado enters on a W2 streak including a 9-7 win at this same park yesterday; Philadelphia is on an L2 streak and has lost 3 of last 5 at home