All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Kansas City Royals
Date
Sat, May 9
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Kauffman Stadium
Spread
Royals ML
Odds
-143
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Royals ML
-143 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
Kansas City's home advantage, Wacha's established reliability over Smith, and Detroit's brutal road record combine for a lean toward the Royals ML, though the modest edge and KC's poor ATS record cap this at a lean rather than a pick.
Key Factors
Wacha's 3.05 ERA vs. Smith's 0-1 record with minimal MLB sample — Wacha is the clear established starter in this matchup
KC home record 12-9 (.571) vs. Detroit road record 6-15 (.286) — a 28-point win-percentage gap favoring the Royals at Kauffman
Detroit on a 4-game losing streak entering this game; KC riding a W1 streak with momentum from a 4-3 win over Detroit the night prior
KC team ERA (4.31) is offset by Detroit's worse road ATS record (8-13, .381) — Tigers have not covered on the road consistently all season