All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
San Diego Padres
Date
Sat, May 9
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Petco Park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
+123
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
+123 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Cardinals ML is a LEAN — the ATS momentum and offensive edge are real, but Dustin May's 5.15 ERA against a pitcher-friendly Petco environment and Vasquez's superior 3.20 ERA prevent this from reaching PICK confidence.
Key Factors
Cardinals are 8-2 ATS last 10 games vs. Padres' 3-7 ATS last 10 — a 50-point gap in recent cover rate
Cardinals road ATS record is elite at 12-6 (.667) vs. Padres home ATS of 12-9 (.571)
Cardinals team OPS (.721) outpaces Padres (.672) by 49 points, with more runs (182 vs. 163) and home runs (45 vs. 36) on the season
Cardinals have already won both games of this series (6-0, 2-1), and Padres are on a 2-game losing streak while Cardinals ride a 2-game win streak