All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
Date
Sun, May 10
Time
8:10 PM
Venue
Chase Field
Spread
Diamondbacks ML
Odds
-115
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Diamondbacks ML
-115 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Arizona's home ATS dominance and offensive output provide a lean toward the Diamondbacks ML, but Brazoban's superior ERA and the Mets' better team pitching keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Arizona ATS overall is .632 vs New York's .359 — a 27-percentage-point gap cited as the top signal in this matchup
Diamondbacks home ATS record is 12-8 (.600); Mets road ATS is 10-11 (.476), giving Arizona a clear home-cover edge
Arizona as a home favorite is 5-2 ATS (.714); Mets as a road favorite are 9-22 ATS (.290) — a massive split favoring the home side
Mets team OPS is .633 vs Arizona's .695, and Mets have scored only 138 runs vs Arizona's 164, suggesting Arizona's offense has a meaningful edge