All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays
@
Toronto Blue Jays
Date
Mon, May 11
Time
11:07 PM
Venue
Rogers Centre
Spread
Rays ML
Odds
+109
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rays ML
+109 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
The Rays carry clear systemic edges in ATS record, pitching quality, and recent head-to-head dominance, but as a moneyline underdog at +109 the bar for a PICK is higher — this lands as a LEAN on Tampa Bay ML with the data pointing their direction without enough separation to fully commit.
Key Factors
Rays ATS record is 25-14 (.641) vs Blue Jays 16-24 (.400) — a 24% gap in ATS win rate
Rays are 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs Blue Jays 4-6 — clear recent momentum edge
Rays team ERA is 3.44 vs Blue Jays 4.08, and opponent OPS allowed is .650 vs .697 — superior pitching across the board
Rays went 3-0 against Toronto in their last series (May 4-6), outscoring them 12-4 in those three games