All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Tampa Bay Rays
@
Toronto Blue Jays
Date
Tue, May 12
Time
11:07 PM
Venue
Rogers Centre
Spread
Rays ML
Odds
-126
Risk
MOD
PICK
Rays ML
-126 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
Tampa Bay Rays 7, Toronto Blue Jays 6
+79.37u
The Edge
McClanahan's ERA edge, Tampa Bay's elite ATS record, and a dominant 4-0 season series all point to the Rays ML at a reasonable -126 price.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: McClanahan 2.60 vs Corbin 3.60 — a full run differential favoring Tampa Bay's starter
Tampa Bay team ERA 3.48 vs Toronto 4.16 — a 0.68 gap reflecting systemic pitching superiority
Rays 8-2 ATS last 10 games and 26-14 ATS overall (.650) vs Blue Jays 16-25 ATS (.390) — a 26% ATS win rate gap
Rays have won all 4 head-to-head matchups this season and are riding a W2 streak vs Toronto's L2 streak