All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
New York Mets
Date
Tue, May 12
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Mets ML
Odds
-156
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mets ML
-156 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
Lean Mets ML on the clear starting pitcher edge (Peralta 3.12 vs Flaherty 5.56) in a pitcher-friendly park, but Detroit's underdog ATS dominance and the Mets' brutal home ATS record cap this at a lean, not a pick.
Key Factors
Peralta (2-3, 3.12 ERA) vs Flaherty (0-3, 5.56 ERA) — 2.44 ERA delta well above the 1.5 threshold that signals a meaningful starter edge
Mets team ERA (3.85) and WHIP (1.26) are both slightly better than Detroit's (3.90 / 1.31), and Mets hold opponents to a lower OPS (0.666 vs 0.696)
Citi Field park factor (Run: 0.97, HR: 0.93) is pitcher-friendly, which amplifies Peralta's advantage and suppresses Detroit's below-average offense (37 HR, 175 runs in 41 games)
Detroit's road record is 7-16 SU and their offense ranks below average at .242 BA / .714 OPS — manageable for an above-average starter like Peralta