All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
San Diego Padres
@
Milwaukee Brewers
Date
Tue, May 12
Time
11:40 PM
Venue
American Family Field
Spread
Brewers ML
Odds
-131
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Brewers ML
-131 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Milwaukee's superior run differential, hot ATS form, and home advantage provide a directional lean, but two struggling starters and San Diego's strong road underdog ATS record keep this firmly in LEAN territory.
Key Factors
Milwaukee's team ERA is 3.43 vs San Diego's 4.07 — a 0.64 gap favoring Brewers pitching depth
Brewers are 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs Padres' 3-7 ATS last 10 — a 40-point swing in recent form
Milwaukee's run differential is +1.4 vs San Diego's +0.1 — a +1.3 team quality gap
Brewers are 13-8 SU at home (.619) and 13-8 ATS at home (.619) vs Padres' 9-8 ATS on the road (.529)