All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Seattle Mariners
@
Houston Astros
Date
Wed, May 13
Time
12:10 AM
Venue
Daikin Park
Spread
Mariners ML
Odds
-149
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mariners ML
-149 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
The pitching matchup strongly favors Seattle, but the Mariners' anemic offense and poor road ATS record cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK at -149.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Woo at 4.02 vs Imai at 7.27 — a 3.25-run differential, well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge
Team ERA edge: Seattle 3.71 vs Houston 5.50, with Seattle's team WHIP (1.23) also superior to Houston's (1.58)
Head-to-head dominance: Seattle has won all 5 matchups against Houston this season, including yesterday's 3-1 victory
Houston's struggling offense: Astros are 16-26 (.381 win%), on a 3-game losing streak, with opponents posting a .801 OPS against their pitching