All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
San Francisco Giants
@
Los Angeles Dodgers
Date
Wed, May 13
Time
2:10 AM
Venue
Dodger Stadium
Spread
Dodgers ML
Odds
-314
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Dodgers ML
-314 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Yamamoto vs Houser is a dominant pitching edge that makes the Dodgers the clear side to be on, but at -314 the juice demands ~80 confidence and the Dodgers' home ATS struggles, current losing streak, and yesterday's blowout loss to SF keep this firmly in LEAN territory.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA delta of 3.10 (Yamamoto 3.09 vs Houser 6.19) — exceeds the 1.5+ threshold for a significant edge by a wide margin
Dodgers team ERA (3.42) and WHIP (1.14) both elite vs Giants team ERA (4.03) and WHIP (1.33) — systemic pitching quality gap
Dodgers team OPS (.777) vs Giants team OPS (.655) — .122 gap is a substantial offensive edge; LAD has scored 206 runs vs SF's 139
Season records reflect genuine quality gap: LAD 24-17 (+1.5 avg margin) vs SF 17-24 (-1.0 avg margin), with LAD holding a +2.5 run differential edge