All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Colorado Rockies
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Wed, May 13
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-186
Risk
MOD
PICK
Pirates ML
-186 · 1 Unit
78%
❌ Loss
Colorado Rockies 10, Pittsburgh Pirates 4
-100.00u
The Edge
Keller's 2.87 ERA atop a 3.67 team ERA staff against a road-struggling Rockies offense (.712 OPS, 4.81 team ERA) gives Pittsburgh a multi-layered edge that justifies laying the moderate juice at home.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA gap: Keller 2.87 vs Quintana 3.90 — a 1.03 differential favoring Pittsburgh's starter, well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge when combined with team-level support
Team ERA dominance: Pirates 3.67 vs Rockies 4.81 — a 1.14-run gap indicating Pittsburgh's entire pitching staff is superior, not just the starter
Run differential edge: Pirates +0.8 vs Rockies -0.9, a +1.7 gap reflecting genuine team quality over a 40+ game sample
Home splits: Pirates are 12-9 at home (.571) and 11-6 ATS as home underdogs (.647); Colorado is 8-15 on the road (.348) and on a 3-game losing streak including a 1-3 loss at PNC Park the night prior