All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Thu, May 14
Time
4:35 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-175
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-175 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Pittsburgh's superior pitching metrics and run differential edge make them the lean at home, but yesterday's 10-4 Colorado blowout and Pittsburgh's poor recent ATS form cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Pittsburgh team ERA of 3.75 vs Colorado's 4.77 — a full run gap that reflects a meaningfully better pitching staff
Pirates opponent OPS of .661 vs Rockies opponent OPS of .789 — Pittsburgh pitching suppresses opposing offenses far more effectively
Mason Montgomery ERA 2.87 vs Chase Dollander ERA 3.35 — Pittsburgh's starter has the edge on the mound in this specific matchup
Pittsburgh 23-20 (.535 win%) vs Colorado 17-26 (.395 win%) — a 14-game gap in the standings reflecting sustained team quality