All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
San Diego Padres
@
Milwaukee Brewers
Date
Thu, May 14
Time
5:40 PM
Venue
American Family Field
Spread
Brewers ML
Odds
-156
Risk
MOD
PICK
Brewers ML
-156 · 1 Unit
76%
✅ Winner
San Diego Padres 1, Milwaukee Brewers 7
+64.10u
The Edge
Harrison's dominant 2.41 ERA against Canning's 6.75 ERA is the clearest pitching mismatch on the board, and Milwaukee's superior team metrics, home ATS record, and recent 7-3 ATS run make the Brewers ML at -156 a justified moderate-favorite PICK.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA delta of 4.34 (Harrison 2.41 vs Canning 6.75) — exceeds the 1.5+ significant edge threshold by a wide margin
Milwaukee leads in team ERA (3.43 vs 4.06) and Opp OPS allowed (0.655 vs 0.683), indicating superior pitching at every level
Brewers are 7-3 ATS last 10 games and carry a +1.3 run differential edge (+1.4 vs +0.1)
Milwaukee is 14-9 ATS at home (.609) and 16-11 ATS as a home favorite (.593), showing consistent value at American Family Field