All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Chicago Cubs
@
Atlanta Braves
Date
Thu, May 14
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Truist Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
-163
Risk
MOD
PICK
Braves ML
-163 · 1 Unit
78%
❌ Loss
Chicago Cubs 2, Atlanta Braves 0
-100.00u
The Edge
Sale's elite ERA, Atlanta's superior offense and pitching metrics, dominant home ATS record, and series momentum all converge to make the Braves ML a justified PICK at a moderate -163 price.
Key Factors
Chris Sale is 6-2 with a 2.20 ERA — an elite starter edge over Ben Brown (1-1, 1.82 in limited sample) with Atlanta's team ERA of 3.06 vs Chicago's 3.86 reinforcing the pitching gap
Atlanta's team OPS of .787 vs Chicago's .749 and opponent OPS allowed of .628 vs .683 show a meaningful two-way quality gap
Braves are 8-2 ATS last 10 games and 13-7 ATS at home (.650) vs Cubs' 7-13 ATS on the road (.350) — a 30-point home/road ATS gap
Atlanta has already beaten Chicago twice this series (4-1, 5-2) and holds a +1.2 run differential edge on the season (2.2 vs 1.0)