All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Athletics
Date
Thu, May 14
Time
7:05 PM
Venue
Sutter Health Park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-108
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-108 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The pitching edge for McGreevy over Lopez is substantial enough to lean Cardinals ML at a near-even price, but the Athletics' home advantage, better offense, and market favoritism keep this a lean rather than a strong pick.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA delta of 3.93 (McGreevy 2.18 vs Lopez 6.11) — well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge, strongly favoring STL
Cardinals are 14-8 (.636) ATS on the road this season — elite road performance flagged as a key edge
Athletics are only 8-10 (.444) ATS at home this season — below-average home cover rate flagged as a fade signal
Cardinals team ERA (4.29) and WHIP (1.38) both better than Athletics (4.37 / 1.45), indicating a superior overall pitching staff