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MLB · Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Fri, May 15
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
+109
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
+109 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Detroit's dominant home ATS record (.667) against a Toronto team that is historically bad on the road (.316 ATS away) provides a lean toward the Tigers at plus money, but Detroit's 3-game skid and the market's favor toward Toronto cap this at a LEAN.
Key Factors
Detroit is 12-6 at home vs Toronto's 6-13 on the road — a 6-game home/road gap that is one of the largest splits in the data
Detroit ATS as home underdog: 10-7 (.588) — they cover at a strong rate when getting plus money at home
Detroit's team ERA (4.07) and OPS allowed (0.704) are marginally better than Toronto's (4.13 ERA, 0.703 OPS allowed), suggesting a slight pitching edge
Ty Madden's 2.45 ERA vs Trey Yesavage's 0.68 ERA is a small sample caveat, but Madden has a full-season track record edge over a rookie with minimal innings (N/A IP listed)