All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
New York Mets
Date
Fri, May 15
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-157
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-157 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Yankees ML is a LEAN — their superior team quality, offense, and pitching metrics justify backing the favorite at -157, but Yankees' recent skid, Mets' hot ATS form, and a credible Holmes start prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Yankees win percentage .614 vs Mets .419 — a 19.5-point gap reflecting a meaningfully better team overall
Yankees team OPS .763 vs Mets .641 — a .122 gap is a substantial offensive edge, supported by 223 runs scored vs 161
Yankees team ERA 3.22 vs Mets 3.75 — Yankees are the better pitching team as well, creating a two-way edge
Mets are 7-14 (.333) ATS at home this season — historically poor home performance undermines the home-field advantage narrative