All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Kansas City Royals
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Sat, May 16
Time
12:15 AM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-114
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-114 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The Cardinals' strong home ATS record and KC's brutal road splits lean STL, but Wacha's 2.22 ERA advantage over May is a real counterweight that keeps this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Cardinals are 26-17 ATS overall (.605) vs. Royals' 18-26 ATS (.409) — a 20% gap in ATS win rate flagged as a key signal
Cardinals home ATS record is 12-8 (.600) vs. Royals road ATS record of 7-14 (.333), a stark split favoring STL at Busch
Kansas City is on a 4-game losing streak and 3-7 ATS in their last 10, while STL is 5-5 ATS in last 10 with a W1 streak
Cardinals hold a better overall record (25-18, .581 win%) vs. Royals (19-25, .432) and a superior run differential (+0.0 vs. -0.5)