All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
San Francisco Giants
@
Athletics
Date
Sat, May 16
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
Sutter Health Park
Spread
Athletics ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Athletics ML
-136 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Civale's dominant ERA edge over Mahle is the primary driver of a lean toward Athletics ML at a reasonable -136 price, but the Giants' superior bullpen metrics keep this short of a full PICK.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA gap: Civale 2.59 vs. Mahle 5.18 — a 2.59-run differential that meets the 1.5+ threshold for a significant edge per methodology
Athletics overall record 22-21 (.512) vs. Giants 18-26 (.409) — a 17-percentage-point team quality gap
Athletics ATS overall 26-17 (.605) vs. Giants 19-25 (.432) — Athletics cover at a 17% higher rate on the season
Athletics as home underdog ATS: 24-11 (.686) — elite cover rate in this exact role, and they are home favorites here at -136