All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
New York Mets
Date
Sun, May 17
Time
5:40 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-105
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-105 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The Yankees' team quality and offensive edges are real, but Peralta's ERA advantage over Rodriguez is the dominant factor in this game and the market correctly prices the Mets as a slight favorite — lean Yankees given the value at -105 but not enough edges to commit to a PICK.
Key Factors
Yankees team OPS is 0.761 vs Mets 0.640 — a 121-point gap representing a substantial offensive quality edge
Yankees run differential is +1.5 vs Mets -0.3, a +1.8 edge reflecting consistent team quality over 46 games
Yankees team ERA (3.24) and WHIP (1.16) are both superior to Mets (3.74 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), meaning the bullpen matchup likely favors New York
Mets are 8-15 (.348) ATS at home this season and only 10-13 SU at home — a clear fade signal for the home side