All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Cincinnati Reds
@
Cleveland Guardians
Date
Sun, May 17
Time
5:40 PM
Venue
Progressive Field
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
-168
Risk
MOD
PICK
Guardians ML
-168 · 1 Unit
76%
✅ Winner
Cincinnati Reds 3, Cleveland Guardians 10
+59.52u
The Edge
Williams' significant ERA advantage over Singer, Cleveland's superior team pitching, and strong home ATS performance combine to make the Guardians a credible moderate favorite at -168.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA delta: Williams 3.74 vs Singer 5.79 — a 2.05-run gap that clears the 1.5+ ERA threshold for a meaningful lean on the better starter's team
Cleveland team ERA 3.88 vs Cincinnati team ERA 4.68, and team WHIP 1.27 vs 1.48 — Guardians pitching staff is demonstrably superior across the board
Cleveland 7-3 ATS last 10 games and 14-10 SU at home (15-9 ATS at home, .625) — elite home performance with strong recent momentum
Cleveland Opp OPS allowed is .706 vs Cincinnati Opp OPS allowed of .768 — Guardians pitching suppresses opposing offenses significantly better