All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Sun, May 17
Time
5:40 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
+108
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
+108 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Detroit's elite home/underdog ATS profile (.700 at home, .632 as home dog) provides a LEAN edge at +108, but Flaherty's 5.73 ERA against Gausman's 3.86 caps confidence below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Detroit is 13-7 at home (.650) vs Toronto's 7-14 on the road (.333) — a 31-point win-rate gap favoring the Tigers
Detroit ATS at home is 14-6 (.700) vs Toronto ATS on the road is 6-15 (.286) — a massive 41-point ATS gap
Detroit as home underdog is 12-7 ATS (.632), directly applicable here as +108 underdogs
Detroit team ERA (3.94) and Opp OPS allowed (0.695) are marginally better than Toronto's (4.02 / 0.697), and team OPS favors Detroit (0.707 vs 0.678)