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NBA · SpreadActive
San Antonio Spurs
@
Oklahoma City Thunder
Date
Tue, May 19
Time
12:30 AM
Venue
Paycom Center
Spread
Thunder -6.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
PICK
Thunder -6.5
-110 · 1 Unit
78%
The Edge
OKC's dominant home ATS record, elite 8-2 recent ATS form, superior defensive efficiency, and Fox's injury uncertainty combine to make the Thunder a legitimate PICK to cover at -6.5 on their home floor.
Key Factors
OKC is 8-2 ATS last 10 games — a meaningful trend well above the 7-3 threshold, confirmed by +12.5 avg margin at home
OKC home ATS record is 30-13 (.698) vs SA road ATS of 18-23 (.439) — a 26-point gap in cover rate
OKC Defensive Rating 105.4 vs SA Offensive Rating 116.6 — Thunder defense is elite and SA's offense will face its stiffest test; OKC also forces more turnovers (SA TOPG 13.5 vs OKC 10.6)
De'Aaron Fox (G) is day-to-day/questionable — per methodology, day-to-day on game day usually means out, representing a 3-5 pt line swing in OKC's favor on a spread already set at -6.5