All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Mon, May 18
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-149
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
-149 · 1 Unit
58%
The Edge
LEAN Tigers ML on home pitching advantage and elite home record, but Cleveland's ATS momentum, underdog history, and Detroit's injury-depleted roster keep confidence well below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Framber Valdez (4.32 ERA) vs Slade Cecconi (5.60 ERA) — 1.28 ERA delta favors the home starter, approaching the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge
Detroit home ATS record is 14-7 (.667), one of the strongest home splits in the data set
Detroit home SU record is 13-8 — they win at home at a .619 clip despite a .426 overall win rate
Detroit's opponent OPS allowed (0.693) is the best in this matchup, suggesting their pitching staff suppresses opposing offenses more effectively than Cleveland's (0.709 opp OPS)