All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Tue, May 19
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
-125
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Guardians ML
-125 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Cleveland gets the clear pitching edge and momentum lean, but Detroit's strong home ATS record and Cleveland's poor road favorite ATS mark keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK at -125.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA delta of 1.30 favors Cleveland — Messick at 2.35 ERA vs Montero at 3.65 ERA, with Messick's 5-1 record signaling consistent run support
Cleveland ATS 28-21 (.571) overall vs Detroit 23-25 (.479) — a 9% ATS win rate edge across the full season
Cleveland on a 7-3 ATS run last 10 games vs Detroit 4-6 ATS last 10 — momentum clearly one-sided
Detroit carrying a 3-game losing streak with a depleted rotation (Skubal, Verlander, Madden all on IL) and multiple position player injuries including Carpenter and Torres