All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
@
New York Yankees
Date
Tue, May 19
Time
11:05 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-137
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-137 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Yankees ML is a LEAN — the structural edges in home record, run differential, team offense, and park factors are real, but Cease's elite ERA makes this a pitcher-driven game that keeps confidence below the PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Yankees dominant home record (15-6, .714) vs. Blue Jays weak road record (8-15, .348) — a 36-point win% gap that is one of the largest home/road splits in the data
Yankees team OPS advantage of .087 (.766 vs .679) and 50 more runs scored (244 vs 194) on the season
Yankees team ERA (3.35) and WHIP (1.17) significantly outperform Toronto's (4.03 / 1.30), and opponent OPS allowed gap is massive (.631 vs .700)
Yankee Stadium HR factor of 1.28 with wind blowing 8 mph out to RF favors the Yankees' power-heavy lineup (71 HR vs Toronto's 44)