All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Tue, May 19
Time
11:45 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-118
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-118 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
A lean toward the Cardinals as home favorites at -118 is supported by their superior record, strong home ATS performance, and Pittsburgh's brutal recent form, but Keller's ERA advantage and Pittsburgh's better overall pitching metrics keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Cardinals ATS win rate is .609 overall vs Pirates .511 — a 10% edge flagged in the data, with STL also covering at .609 at home this season
Cardinals are 27-19 (.587 win%) vs Pirates 24-23 (.511), a meaningful record gap at this stage of the season
Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight and been shut out twice in a row (0-6, 0-6 vs PHI), signaling a cold offensive streak entering this game
Pitcher ERA edge favors Pittsburgh's Keller (3.59) over Liberatore (4.40), but Cardinals' superior home record and ATS performance partially offset this; Cardinals team ERA (4.12) is workable at a neutral park (Busch run factor 0.99)