All Picks
NHL · Moneyline
Vegas Golden Knights
@
Colorado Avalanche
Date
Thu, May 21
Time
12:00 AM
Venue
Ball Arena
Spread
Avalanche ML
Odds
-192
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Avalanche ML
-192 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Colorado's elite goaltending, superior team quality, and home dominance justify a LEAN on the Avalanche ML, but the -192 juice demands 80+ confidence to qualify as a PICK, and Makar's injury status plus VGK's underdog ATS record keep this at a LEAN.
Key Factors
Wedgewood vs Hart goalie gap: .921 vs .891 SV% (+.030) and 2.02 vs 2.71 GAA — a significant quality mismatch at the most impactful position in hockey
Colorado's overall team quality edge: 55-16-11 record (.738 win%) vs Vegas 39-26-17 (.579), plus +0.46 goal differential advantage
Colorado scores 4.11 goals/game vs Vegas 3.67, with more shots per game (32.6 vs 27.5) — sustained offensive pressure at home
Colorado home record 26-9-6 SU vs Vegas road record 19-14-8 SU — home ice advantage is real and Colorado has been dominant at Ball Arena