All Picks
NBA · SpreadActive
San Antonio Spurs
@
Oklahoma City Thunder
Date
Thu, May 21
Time
12:30 AM
Venue
Paycom Center
Spread
Thunder -6.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
PICK
Thunder -6.5
-110 · 1 Unit
76%
The Edge
OKC's elite home ATS record, superior defensive efficiency, and a potentially compromised Fox give the Thunder enough multi-factor edge to cover -6.5 in a bounce-back spot at home.
Key Factors
OKC is 8-2 ATS last 10 games vs SA's 6-4, and holds a dominant .698 home ATS record (30-13) vs SA's .439 road ATS record (18-23)
OKC's point differential is +11.1 vs SA's +8.3, and defensive rating is 105.4 vs SA's 108.5 — a meaningful 3.1-point gap
OKC leads the series 1-0 having won Game 1 at home 122-115, with SA coming in off a road loss (L1 streak) and OKC motivated after a home loss (L2 streak = bounce-back spot)
De'Aaron Fox is listed DAY-TO-DAY (questionable) with an ankle injury — a star-level absence worth 3-5 pts mentally re-evaluated into a 6.5-point spread