All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
@
New York Yankees
Date
Wed, May 20
Time
11:05 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-180
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-180 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Yankees are the clear lean on team quality, home splits, and pitching metrics, but the -180 juice combined with a 2-8 ATS last-10 and back-to-back one-run wins keeps this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Yankees home record 16-6 (.727) vs Blue Jays road record 8-16 (.333) — a 39-point win percentage gap that is one of the clearest splits in this dataset
Yankees team ERA 3.36 vs Blue Jays 4.06 — a 0.70 gap, and Yankees opponent OPS of .631 vs Blue Jays opponent OPS of .701 confirms the pitching quality difference is real
Yankees +1.4 average run differential vs Blue Jays -0.3 — a +1.7 composite edge signaling meaningful team quality separation
Cam Schlittler (6-1, 1.35) vs Trey Yesavage (1-1, 1.40) — both ERAs are nearly identical but Schlittler's 6-1 record and Yankees' superior run support context gives NYY the pitching edge on paper