All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Wed, May 20
Time
11:45 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-118
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-118 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
McGreevy's 2.10 ERA vs Mlodzinski's 4.40 ERA is a legitimate starter-level edge at a moderate price (-118), and the Cardinals' superior ATS record and home splits support a lean, but Pittsburgh's stronger team-wide pitching and offense prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA gap: McGreevy 2.10 vs Mlodzinski 4.40 — a 2.30-run differential that clears the 1.5+ threshold for a significant starter edge
Cardinals ATS overall 29-18 (.617) vs Pirates 24-24 (.500) — a 12% ATS win-rate edge that the data explicitly flags
Cardinals home ATS record 15-9 (.625) vs Pirates road ATS 11-11 (.500) — home/road splits reinforce the directional lean
Season series dominance: Cardinals are 5-0 vs Pittsburgh in 2025, including a 9-6 win in the immediately preceding game on May 19