All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Washington Nationals
Date
Thu, May 21
Time
8:05 PM
Venue
Nationals Park
Spread
Nationals ML
Odds
-106
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Nationals ML
-106 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cavalli's ERA edge over Peterson, Washington's dominant ATS underdog record, and back-to-back wins in this series give the Nationals a lean-worthy edge at near pick-em pricing, though the team ERA gap keeps this from reaching PICK territory.
Key Factors
Cavalli (4.05 ERA) has a 1.35-run ERA edge over Peterson (5.40), the single biggest pitching edge in this matchup
Washington ATS record is 30-20 (.600) overall vs NYM's 20-29 (.408) — a 19% gap flagged as a key signal
Nationals are 30-19 (.612) ATS as underdogs; at -106 they are a near pick-em underdog with strong ATS dog history
Washington riding a W2 streak, winning the last two games of this very series 8-4 and 9-6, while NYM enters on L2